The demand for construction machinery picks up in the fourth quarter, and exports drive growth next year.
the demand for construction machinery picks up in the fourth quarter, and exports drive growth next year.
China Construction machinery information
Guide: Investment points: the investment in fixed assets is too complex to accurately measure the demand for construction machinery. The three investments that directly drive the procurement of construction machinery are real estate, mining and infrastructure. Infrastructure projects related to construction machinery are mainly roads, railways, urban public transportation, water conservancy, water transportation, aviation
key points of investment:
fixed asset investment is too complex to accurately measure the demand for construction machinery. The three investments that directly drive the procurement of construction machinery are real estate, mining and infrastructure. Infrastructure projects related to construction machinery are mainly roads, railways, urban public transportation, water conservancy, water transportation and aviation, with a total amount of about 1.3 trillion. In 2008, the experimental space of incremental experimental machines was about 160billion. Railway investment is the largest one to drive growth, equivalent to twice the investment in water conservancy, urban public transport and roads. In addition to the investment in oil and gas exploitation, the total investment in other parts of the mining industry is about 300billion, with an increase of about 120billion in 2008. The overall growth is rapid, with the largest increase in coal investment. After deducting the land purchase fees, the annual total amount of real estate investment 3. The touch key operation mode is about 2trillion, and the increment in 2008 is 590 billion. The incremental contribution of the central, northeast and inland regions is 1.6 times that of the coastal and Yangtze River Delta regions, and the vast inland provinces supported the growth in 2008
according to our assumptions, the incremental contribution of investment in real estate, infrastructure construction and mining will account for 53%, 35% and 3% respectively next year to prevent dust from entering the detector window. The total domestic demand for construction machinery (including imports) will be about 111.9 billion, with a growth rate of -9.9%. In 2009, if the import growth is negative%, the domestic sales of domestic manufacturers will decline by only 5% 5%。
the development of the global construction market in 2009 mainly depends on the growth of emerging economies, and the growth rate of construction investment in emerging regions will be about 78.7% in 2008. It is estimated that the export growth rate of China's complete machine products is about 64.5%. In the medium and long term, the regional scale of the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Latin America is much larger than that of the Chinese market. As long as the development of emerging markets is smooth, there is enough room for domestic products to grow
according to the calculation of 50% export proportion, the sales volume of the whole industry increased by 23%, and according to the calculation of 25% - 30% or so, the growth rate was 8% - 10.8%. Only in a few cases will the overall negative growth occur, and the range will not exceed 6%. The sales growth rate of major leading companies should be 12.% Left and right
demand showed signs of warming in the fourth quarter. In August, although the growth rate of real estate investment declined, the growth rate of mining and infrastructure investment remained strong. The planned investment growth of new construction projects has actively taken effective measures to turn from negative to positive, and the growth rate of the number of new construction projects and construction projects has rebounded sharply, with month on month growth rates as high as 28.8% and 16.5%. The cumulative growth rate of investment in the construction industry also turned positive again, and the growth rate of sales of major construction machinery products showed signs of recovery. Although the overall growth rate of cement production continues to fall, the growth rate of cement in 15 provinces has begun to rise. Although we believe that the demand reversal will wait until the real estate policy is relaxed, under the current policy and market background, the trend of demand recovery is likely to continue, and construction machinery is a good investment choice in the rebound. In terms of stock selection, we should consider the varieties that contribute a lot to export increment and drive demand by infrastructure construction. It is suggested to focus on XCMG technology, Zoomlion and sany
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