Review of polypropylene market in the first half o

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Review of polypropylene market in the first half of 2002

after new year's day, the domestic polypropylene market trend is first down and then up. The quotation of polypropylene (wire drawing material) fell from 4800 yuan at the end of 2001 to 4700 yuan (ton price, the same below), while the selling price in Shanghai, Nanjing and Tianjin markets also fell to 4600 yuan

the polypropylene market rose in the second half of the month. Due to the low inventory after the clearance of factories before the year, the tariff reduction also caused a great opportunity for you to trade promotional products at the beginning of the year. The imported goods were temporarily out of stock. In addition, the international market price was relatively stable. Therefore, led by the rise of low-density polyethylene, most plastic products, including polypropylene, rebounded from the bottom. The mainstream price of polypropylene wire drawing material in the market reached yuan, up yuan from a year ago; Note: the price difference of plastic in thickness is as high as 10 times (including ordinary copolymer grade), and the market price of special materials for washing machines is maintained at about yuan; The film material is about yuan

wire drawing grade; The domestic market rose gratifyingly, among which the market price in North China and Jiangsu and Zhejiang was yuan, that in Guangdong was yuan, and that in southwest and northwest markets was about yuan. The nominal ex factory price of major domestic production enterprises is mostly yuan. Judging from the market situation and the sales situation of each factory, there is still room for continued growth, but it is relatively limited

bopp material: the domestic market price is basically about yuan, while the ex factory price of domestic enterprises is mostly also about yuan. As the domestic demand for film materials has not strengthened, the market price has not changed much

plastic injection: the price of plastic injection is basically stable. The mainstream price of homopolymer injection plastics is about yuan, the ex factory price of domestic manufacturers is mostly about yuan, the market price of copolymers is about yuan, and the market price of special materials for washing machines is about yuan

analyzing the trend of polypropylene in January, some experts pointed out that the rebound of polypropylene market was partly stimulated by the reduction of market resources and the improvement of the relationship between supply and demand. Before that, the market has been in an extremely weak state, the polypropylene price has fallen excessively, and the confidence of dealers has been greatly lost, resulting in insufficient replenishment of market resources, giving a certain opportunity for price recovery

in addition, the rapid rise in international market prices is also an important reason for the rise in market prices in various regions. In the fourth quarter of last year, the industry was speculating that the price of polypropylene would fall rapidly after China's entry into the WTO. Therefore, domestic petrochemical enterprises generally reduced the ex factory price of polypropylene by a large margin in the fourth quarter of last year. However, after the middle of January, 2002, with the rise of international market quotation, and the reduction of polypropylene tariff is not too large, the actual price of goods has not decreased, and the stimulation of good news makes the price of polypropylene tend to rise

following the strengthening trend of domestic polypropylene in late January, around the Spring Festival in February, the domestic polypropylene market as a whole still showed signs of strength, the market was relatively stable, and there was no sharp decline after a sharp rise. The market supply is still relatively tight, and the prices of a few manufacturers continue to rise due to the shortage of spot goods. However, the downstream demand is reduced due to the impact of the holiday and shutdown of processing enterprises. The overall market price is basically stable, but there is a large difference between the north and the south. By the end of February, the domestic market price of polypropylene wire drawing material remained at yuan; The higher price in the south is yuan; Note the price of plastic is yuan (including ordinary copolymerization grade), of which the market price of special materials for washing machines is yuan; The price of film materials is about yuan, and the overall price in southern regions is about yuan higher than that in northern regions

in March, the domestic market price of polydiene rose step by step, and the production and sales situation was booming. The continuous sharp rise in the month made the factory price and market price of enterprises rise synchronously to more than 6000 yuan, which was not only the highest since this year, but also recovered to the price level in June and July last year. The market price of homopolymer in North China is yuan, the market price in East China is yuan, and the market price in South China is yuan; The market price range of film materials is yuan, fiber materials are yuan, and copolymers are yuan. The overall characteristics of the market are strong hype popularity and strong market demand

in April, the international crude oil market price fluctuated frequently, and the slight rebound after the sharp fall could not change the stagnant propylene raw material price to firm again, and the market transaction was almost stagnant. However, producers and traders are still trying to maintain the strong quotation of polypropylene dollar/ton (CFR Northeast Asia), and buyers obviously cannot accept the higher price level. As the general material in the market, the domestic market price is only yuan, which is seriously inversely linked to the enterprise price, and the mentality of buying up but not buying down in the market has not significantly improved the sales difficulty of enterprises, and at the same time, it has put great pressure on the formulation of the flop price at the end of April

the market was still in a weak state until the beginning of May, and the market did not appear stable until the middle of May, but you should browse our company in detail about the overall price, and the knowledge level of our products is still low. Among them, the price of wire drawing materials in Guangzhou market is yuan, while the price of wire drawing materials in East China is generally reduced to about 6100 yuan, and the price in Northeast China is also about 6100 yuan. After entering may, the enthusiasm of relevant operators to enter the market has increased, but dealers generally reflect that the actual transaction volume is still small, and it will take some time to enter a clear state

it is understood that the overall backlog of domestic polypropylene resources improved in May. For example, merchants in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong reported that the inventory was reduced. But the overall situation is still oversupply. Therefore, the relevant industry is still worried about the future price decline of polypropylene, and dare not boldly enter the goods

after the middle of May, the market supply and demand situation in Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta region is relatively stable, and market transactions basically continue to use the transaction price of the first half of the month. The price of locally produced wire drawing products is about yuan, and the price of some imported products can also be as low as 6100 yuan. However, the market turnover is still small

according to the dealers concerned, there was basically no positive change in sales in the second half of the month, and the enthusiasm of users to enter the market was still not high; Moreover, the market resources are abundant, supply exceeds demand, users have greater choice, and it is difficult to raise the price of polypropylene

since June, most domestic plastic processing enterprises have entered the traditional off-season of demand, and the reduction of processing volume has restrained the normal market demand to a certain extent. The market price of plastic products immediately entered the continuous downturn trend area. At present, the mainstream price of polypropylene (PP) general material Market has fallen to yuan, down yuan from the same period in May. This poor market situation has not significantly improved in June, but the bottom market is gradually revealed. Before the end of June, in order to complete the production and sales rate of the current month and half a year respectively, and to complete the share of shipments to Chinese Mainland, all major market suppliers - domestic manufacturers and foreign businessmen are likely to minimize the currently declining prices, and a large number of low-cost inventories of manufacturers will be transferred to middlemen, which on the one hand stimulates the effective demand of the market, and on the other hand is more conducive to the market's subsequent preparation to hit the bottom

the analysis of specific market factors is as follows:

(1) the market price of raw propylene has fallen sharply, which has a joint impact on the trend of the polypropylene market: since May, the spot market price of propylene in Asia has also continued to decline, partly because the maintenance and shutdown of some devices have reduced the demand, but the main reason is that the downstream polypropylene price and processing rate have declined, making the Asian propylene market begin to appear a situation of supply exceeding demand

as of late June, the spot price of propylene fell from US dollars (CFR East Asia) to US dollars/ton, down US dollars/ton from the price in early May. However, buyers are still worried about the potential downward pressure of demand and the lack of inquiry for propylene, which makes the recent trend of propylene still likely to decline, which will also affect the trend of polypropylene trading price

due to the decline in the price of propylene raw materials, on the one hand, polypropylene manufacturers will expand their profit space due to lower costs, but on the other hand, domestic importers have a poor ability to accept the external market of relative quotations, so the pressure of polypropylene dollar quotation price reduction will still exist for some time

(2) in April, Sinopec abandoned the internal price fixing policy and issued the assessment index of production and marketing rate: in April, when Sinopec implemented the price fixing policy, the sales situation of plastic products in the system was not ideal, resulting in the loss of sales volume and sales revenue. Therefore, Sinopec abandoned the internal price fixing policy in early May and conveyed the new sales guidance, that is, in April, All plastic production enterprises are required to ensure that the production and sales rate of products in the first half of the year reaches 100%. This policy has further triggered the price reduction measures of enterprises with not low inventory levels

(3) although many domestic maintenance units have been shut down successively, it has not played its due role in promoting the market: in June, several domestic large-scale polypropylene units were continuously overhauled. After Daqing Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical finished their maintenance and start-up in early June, Qilu Petrochemical stopped maintenance on June 1, and the total supply of market resources decreased. However, due to the low demand season and the reduction of effective demand coming in June, the maintenance of units did not balance the market Stabilizing prices played a supporting role. The once rising prices soon dissipated, and prices began to fall continuously

(4) the abandonment of high prices in the external market of polypropylene poses a potential threat to the domestic market: although overseas polypropylene manufacturers were once limited by the high cost price of propylene in the Northeast Asian market and did not make a clear adjustment to the export quotation of polypropylene, the high cost and low profit have put great pressure on the manufacturers, and the sharp correction of the overall price in the Chinese market is the direct factor that urges polypropylene manufacturers to abandon the high quotation

since the middle and late May, with the rapid decline in the spot market prices of ethylene and propylene in Asia and the unstable fluctuations in the plastic market prices in China, the external quotation, which has always been strong, has begun to fall

in the first ten days of June, the outer market price fell to below $600/ton (CFR China). Although many polypropylene plants in South Korea and Thailand closed down and reduced operating rates, it was difficult to support the lower outer market price due to the weak demand in the Chinese market. At present, the external price has not yet fallen to the price acceptable to traders in the Chinese market, and the next trend still needs to wait for the further clarity of the price trend in the domestic market

to sum up, it is expected that the domestic polypropylene market price will gradually stabilize at a low level by the end of July. At present, the inventory in the hands of dealers begins to increase due to the price reduction of enterprises. The wait-and-see atmosphere may be replaced by a wave of small speculation. If there is no impact of low-cost imported materials, the pressure of future price decline will also be reduced. In the middle and late July, there is a certain possibility of speculation and rebound in the plastic market, but there should be no hot market with a sharp rise after the Spring Festival this year. As a rule, after the demand downturn in the Chinese market in the second quarter, some agricultural demand will gradually recover in August and September, driving the prices of relevant raw materials higher

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